Circular Economy Transition in Electronic Waste Management: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling of Extended Producer Responsibility Regulations

Global generation of electronic waste (e-waste) reached an unprecedented 62 million metric tons annually by 2026, posing severe environmental hazards and critical mineral supply chain vulnerabilities. This study develops an integrated System Dynamics (SD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) framework to simulate the closed-loop recovery performance of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policy directives. Calibrated using longitudinal panel data from 48 industrial metropolitan jurisdictions from 2015 to 2026, our multi-agent model evaluates how variable producer fee structures, consumer deposit-refund incentives, and hydrometallurgical recycling infrastructure impact urban mining recovery rates. Simulation results demonstrate that combining eco-modulated EPR fees ($25/unit) with a mandatory $15 consumer deposit refund elevates e-waste collection rates to 88.4% and cuts illegal informal scrapping leakages by 78.5%. Economic waterfall decomposition reveals net recovery profits of $1,630 per ton of processed circuit board waste. Policy recommendations advocate for eco-design fee modulation and standardized reverse logistics hubs.