Decarbonizing Urban Freight Logistics: Evaluating the Environmental and Economic Impacts of Electric Fleet Transition Policies

Urban freight transportation contributes disproportionately to metropolitan greenhouse gas emissions and particulate air pollution. This study evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO), grid charging infrastructure requirements, and carbon abatement potential of transition policies for commercial electric delivery fleets. Utilizing empirical telemetry data from 350 urban logistics fleets across 16 European metropolitan areas in 2022, we model the operational trade-offs between diesel and electric light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Grounded in Enterprise Risk Management principles (COSO, 2017; ISO, 2018) and non-linear degradation modeling (Haque & Rasel-Ul-Alam, 2018), our findings indicate that smart dynamic charging scheduling reduces 5-year TCO to $75,700 per van compared to $95,000 for diesel equivalents. Non-linear battery State of Health (SoH) modeling (R2 = 0.982) proves essential for predicting long-term cell capacity retention under fast DC charging. Policy recommendations emphasize off-peak charging tariff incentives and dedicated urban logistics hub charging corridors.